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predict

Class: RegressionLinear

Predict response of linear regression model

Syntax

YHat = predict(Mdl,X)
YHat = predict(Mdl,X,Name,Value)

Description

example

YHat = predict(Mdl,X) returns predicted responses for each observation in the predictor data X based on the trained linear regression model Mdl. YHat contains responses for each regularization strength in Mdl.

example

YHat = predict(Mdl,X,Name,Value) returns predicted responses with additional options specified by one or more Name,Value pair arguments. For example, specify that columns in the predictor data correspond to observations.

Input Arguments

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Linear regression model, specified as a RegressionLinear model object. You can create a RegressionLinear model object using fitrlinear.

Predictor data, specified as an n-by-p full or sparse matrix. This orientation of X indicates that rows correspond to individual observations, and columns correspond to individual predictor variables.

Note

If you orient your predictor matrix so that observations correspond to columns and specify 'ObservationsIn','columns', then you might experience a significant reduction in computation time.

The length of Y and the number of observations in X must be equal.

Data Types: single | double

Name-Value Pair Arguments

Specify optional comma-separated pairs of Name,Value arguments. Name is the argument name and Value is the corresponding value. Name must appear inside quotes. You can specify several name and value pair arguments in any order as Name1,Value1,...,NameN,ValueN.

Predictor data observation dimension, specified as the comma-separated pair consisting of 'ObservationsIn' and 'columns' or 'rows'.

Note

If you orient your predictor matrix so that observations correspond to columns and specify 'ObservationsIn','columns', then you might experience a significant reduction in optimization-execution time.

Output Arguments

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Predicted responses, returned as a n-by-L numeric matrix. n is the number of observations in X and L is the number of regularization strengths in Mdl.Lambda. YHat(i,j) is the response for observation i using the linear regression model that has regularization strength Mdl.Lambda(j).

The predicted response using the model with regularization strength j is y^j=xβj+bj.

  • x is an observation from the predictor data matrix X, and is row vector.

  • βj is the estimated column vector of coefficients. The software stores this vector in Mdl.Beta(:,j).

  • bj is the estimated, scalar bias, which the software stores in Mdl.Bias(j).

Examples

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Simulate 10000 observations from this model

  • is a 10000-by-1000 sparse matrix with 10% nonzero standard normal elements.

  • e is random normal error with mean 0 and standard deviation 0.3.

rng(1) % For reproducibility
n = 1e4;
d = 1e3;
nz = 0.1;
X = sprandn(n,d,nz);
Y = X(:,100) + 2*X(:,200) + 0.3*randn(n,1);

Train a linear regression model. Reserve 30% of the observations as a holdout sample.

CVMdl = fitrlinear(X,Y,'Holdout',0.3);
Mdl = CVMdl.Trained{1}
Mdl = 
  RegressionLinear
         ResponseName: 'Y'
    ResponseTransform: 'none'
                 Beta: [1000x1 double]
                 Bias: -0.0066
               Lambda: 1.4286e-04
              Learner: 'svm'


  Properties, Methods

CVMdl is a RegressionPartitionedLinear model. It contains the property Trained, which is a 1-by-1 cell array holding a RegressionLinear model that the software trained using the training set.

Extract the training and test data from the partition definition.

trainIdx = training(CVMdl.Partition);
testIdx = test(CVMdl.Partition);

Predict the training- and test-sample responses.

yHatTrain = predict(Mdl,X(trainIdx,:));
yHatTest = predict(Mdl,X(testIdx,:));

Because there is one regularization strength in Mdl, yHatTrain and yHatTest are numeric vectors.

Predict responses from the best-performing, linear regression model that uses a lasso-penalty and least squares.

Simulate 10000 observations as in Predict Test-Sample Responses.

rng(1) % For reproducibility
n = 1e4;
d = 1e3;
nz = 0.1;
X = sprandn(n,d,nz);
Y = X(:,100) + 2*X(:,200) + 0.3*randn(n,1);

Create a set of 15 logarithmically-spaced regularization strengths from through .

Lambda = logspace(-5,-1,15);

Cross-validate the models. To increase execution speed, transpose the predictor data and specify that the observations are in columns. Optimize the objective function using SpaRSA.

X = X'; 
CVMdl = fitrlinear(X,Y,'ObservationsIn','columns','KFold',5,'Lambda',Lambda,...
    'Learner','leastsquares','Solver','sparsa','Regularization','lasso');

numCLModels = numel(CVMdl.Trained)
numCLModels = 5

CVMdl is a RegressionPartitionedLinear model. Because fitrlinear implements 5-fold cross-validation, CVMdl contains 5 RegressionLinear models that the software trains on each fold.

Display the first trained linear regression model.

Mdl1 = CVMdl.Trained{1}
Mdl1 = 
  RegressionLinear
         ResponseName: 'Y'
    ResponseTransform: 'none'
                 Beta: [1000x15 double]
                 Bias: [1x15 double]
               Lambda: [1x15 double]
              Learner: 'leastsquares'


  Properties, Methods

Mdl1 is a RegressionLinear model object. fitrlinear constructed Mdl1 by training on the first four folds. Because Lambda is a sequence of regularization strengths, you can think of Mdl1 as 11 models, one for each regularization strength in Lambda.

Estimate the cross-validated MSE.

mse = kfoldLoss(CVMdl);

Higher values of Lambda lead to predictor variable sparsity, which is a good quality of a regression model. For each regularization strength, train a linear regression model using the entire data set and the same options as when you cross-validated the models. Determine the number of nonzero coefficients per model.

Mdl = fitrlinear(X,Y,'ObservationsIn','columns','Lambda',Lambda,...
    'Learner','leastsquares','Solver','sparsa','Regularization','lasso');
numNZCoeff = sum(Mdl.Beta~=0);

In the same figure, plot the cross-validated MSE and frequency of nonzero coefficients for each regularization strength. Plot all variables on the log scale.

figure;
[h,hL1,hL2] = plotyy(log10(Lambda),log10(mse),...
    log10(Lambda),log10(numNZCoeff)); 
hL1.Marker = 'o';
hL2.Marker = 'o';
ylabel(h(1),'log_{10} MSE')
ylabel(h(2),'log_{10} nonzero-coefficient frequency')
xlabel('log_{10} Lambda')
hold off

Choose the index of the regularization strength that balances predictor variable sparsity and low MSE (for example, Lambda(10)).

idxFinal = 10;

Extract the model with corresponding to the minimal MSE.

MdlFinal = selectModels(Mdl,idxFinal)
MdlFinal = 
  RegressionLinear
         ResponseName: 'Y'
    ResponseTransform: 'none'
                 Beta: [1000x1 double]
                 Bias: -0.0050
               Lambda: 0.0037
              Learner: 'leastsquares'


  Properties, Methods

idxNZCoeff = find(MdlFinal.Beta~=0)
idxNZCoeff = 2×1

   100
   200

EstCoeff = Mdl.Beta(idxNZCoeff)
EstCoeff = 2×1

    1.0051
    1.9965

MdlFinal is a RegressionLinear model with one regularization strength. The nonzero coefficients EstCoeff are close to the coefficients that simulated the data.

Simulate 10 new observations, and predict corresponding responses using the best-performing model.

XNew = sprandn(d,10,nz);
YHat = predict(MdlFinal,XNew,'ObservationsIn','columns');

Extended Capabilities

Introduced in R2016a