[probability,contextstr]=Probability_Computation(ShapleyValues,PayOff,Replaceability,scelta,GlobalContext)

function [probability,contextstr]=Probability_Computation(ShapleyValues,PayOff,Replaceability,scelta,GlobalContext)
if scelta
   % fuzzy Rules based Probability
   % different fis depending on global context
   if (GlobalContext==1)
        contextstr='normal';
        a = readfis('ProbabilityH-B-b4-Replace');
    else
        if (GlobalContext==2)
            contextstr='recession';
            a = readfis('ProbabilityH-B-b4-Replace_recession');
        else
            contextstr='growth';
            a = readfis('ProbabilityH-B-b4-Replace_growth');
        end
   end    
    
   probability= fixdec(evalfis([ShapleyValues(:),PayOff(:),Replaceability(:)],a),2)';
   probability(1)=0;
else
    % Bezier based Probability
    % This code uses the Bezier matlab functions of "Yet another Bezier
    % curve demo" by Xenya Petrova available in matlab central.
    % pre-load saved shapley e payoff curve
    if (GlobalContext==1)
        contextstr='normal';
        load('shapley1.mat') %c
        load('payoff1.mat') %d
    else
        if (GlobalContext==2)
            contextstr='recession';
            load('shapley2.mat') %c
            load('payoff2.mat') %d
        else
            contextstr='growth';
            load('shapley3.mat') %c
            load('payoff3.mat') %d
        end
    end    
    
    t=0:0.01:1;
    t2=t.^2;
    t3=t2.*t;
    xshapley=c.ax*t3+c.bx*t2+c.cx*t+c.x0;
    yshapley=c.ay*t3+c.by*t2+c.cy*t+c.y0;

    xpayoff=d.ax*t3+d.bx*t2+d.cx*t+d.x0;
    ypayoff=d.ay*t3+d.by*t2+d.cy*t+d.y0;

    %f2=figure(2);
    %set(f2,'Name',strcat('Bezier probability surface: ',contextstr));
    BezierPlane=yshapley'*ypayoff;
    %axes_handle=axes;
    %meshc(xshapley,xpayoff,BezierPlane);
    %set(axes_handle,'Title',text('String','Probability Surface','Color','k','FontSize',12,'FontWeight','bold'));    
    %set(get(axes_handle,'XLabel'),'String','ShapleyDelta','FontSize',12,'FontWeight','bold');
    %set(get(axes_handle,'YLabel'),'String','Payoff','FontSize',12,'FontWeight','bold');
    
    ShapleyValuesBezier=fixdec(ShapleyValues,2);
    PayOffBezier=fixdec(PayOff,2);
    PayOffBezier(1)=0; 
    
    for i=1:1:length(ShapleyValuesBezier)
        probability(i)=BezierPlane(fixdec((PayOffBezier(i)),1)*100+1,fixdec((ShapleyValuesBezier(i)),1)*100+1);
    end
    probability(1)=0;
end