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harville

by Peter Cotton

 

15 Aug 2010

The Harville method for exacta, quinella and trifecta probabilities

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The basic Harville method for estimating place, show, quinella, exacta and trifecta probabilities from win probabilities. Used and abused by bookmakers and punters the world over.

There are many valid critiques of this formula. Most recently "Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or
Misperceptions" by Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers. See also
"discounted harville formula" (google).

MATLAB release MATLAB 7.9 (2009b)
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harville Peter Cotton 16 Aug 2010 10:11:01
statistics Peter Cotton 16 Aug 2010 10:11:01
probability Peter Cotton 16 Aug 2010 10:11:01
trifecta Peter Cotton 16 Aug 2010 10:11:01
exacta Peter Cotton 16 Aug 2010 10:11:01
quinella Peter Cotton 16 Aug 2010 10:11:01

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