Bayesian Monte Carlo Valuation of Price Volume Action

Density Functional Bayesian Monte Carlo Valuation of Price Volume Action w/MUSIC & Kelly Criterion
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Updated 5 Mar 2021

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A multipath simulation to evaluate the integrated price volume action value into the future
This program is very similar to Bayesian Markov Stochastic Monte Carlo American Option Pricing with Kelly Criterion.
It uses special code to combine price and volume into an action over time which is integrated to see the temporal effect of price and volume. The value displayed by the call and put sections and black scholes is not a real dollar amount, but a value of integrated price volume action. To give some idea about how price and volume will affect value over time. In conjunction with the other program, an expert can judge whether an investment is worth it or not and what the risk is and what the probability of winning within a certain amount of time is. The kelly criterion is still valid and one should use the kelly criterions from this program and not the dollar program. Care should be taken over whether to wager with the Fourier extrapolation trend or whether to go with the statistics. Only an expert can judge if they are saying different things. If BOTH the statistics and Fourier trend are on the same side of the ledger, you can bet that your wager is safer still. A MUltiple SIgnal Classification is also carried out (MUSIC) which allows Fourier Extrapolation is also carried out.

Cite As

Chondrally (2024). Bayesian Monte Carlo Valuation of Price Volume Action (https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/56446-bayesian-monte-carlo-valuation-of-price-volume-action), MATLAB Central File Exchange. Retrieved .

MATLAB Release Compatibility
Created with R2016a
Compatible with any release
Platform Compatibility
Windows macOS Linux
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Version Published Release Notes
20.0.0.1

Updated to reflect complete set of toolbox dependencies

20.0.0.0

changed description
updated getleastpercenterror, calculculatefuturevalues, genereateTemperatures and MUSICFinal

19.0.0.0

changed title

18.0.0.0

updated MusicFinal to get right initital prediction value

17.0.0.0

updated title to include Density Functional as i use a probability density functional to help with the path integral and statistical forecasting. I use a fourier extrapolation to augment the statistical analysis!

16.0.0.0

updated expiration date of option

15.0.0.0

updated all kelly criterion formulas with error checking

14.0.0.0

updated musicfinal
updated matrix G in MusicFinal so that G=conj(transpose(eigvecs matrix)).(eigvecs matrix) to get more accurate frequencies...

13.0.0.0

updated musicfinal and kelly criterion calculation

12.0.0.0

updated musicfinal.m and added getpercenterrorlinear3.m to fix scaling of fourier output

11.0.0.0

updated kelly criterion and figure
updated summary

10.0.0.0

changed +1 to +100 in optionprices for min of action, so that least percent error function would work properly, it was a scaling problem that is now fixed

9.0.0.0

updated musicFinal to fix discontinuity at boundary condition
updated figure to include call and put fourier action option values
updated call and put action present value plots with magenta fourier information

8.0.0.0

updated title
updated title
modified eqnation
sign change in fourier trend analysis

6.0.0.0

added MusicFinal subroutine and corrected fourier trend analysis

5.0.0.0

updated volatility presentation and updated figure display

4.0.0.0

updated EMA40 Volume output on figure and in code as liquidity is crucial
updated color of calculate plots button and changed 'dollar' legend to 'action'

3.0.0.0

updated kelly call and kelly put criterions in figure and code
updated number of paths to calculate ffom 100000 to 3000 which is adequate and muvh faster!

2.0.0.0

ipdated figure

1.0.0.0

updated title...