I wish to get some helps from you to test the running the function in the spreadsheet.
I have compiled your Forecaster.prj and imported the corresponding .bas files into the Forecaster.xlsm. But when I tried it by clicking the "Compute Forecast" button, it showed the run-time errors in the forecast cells, as shown below:
Error in Forecaster.Class1.1_0: Undefined function or method 'sim' for input arguments of type 'struct'.
Error in => loadForecast.m at line 56
The folder where the sim.m situated was already in my Matlab path when I checked through the Set Path command.
I also noticed that you had indicated in the loadForecast.m the paths for looking up the NN and tree models as well as the data file.
Could you please kindly provide some hints to pin point and solve the problem?
I noticed for the genPredictors function, some of the inputs to the short term forecasting model is prevDaySameHourLoad and prev24HrAveLoad. It seems that the prev24HrAveLoad uses the current day load and averages it on a 24 hour basis and the prevDaySameHourLoad uses the load from the previous day. I m not sure how these 2 inputs can be used to predict the next day load forecast for the ANN model. For example if today is Sunday and I want to predict the load for tomorrow (Monday) and I m running the load forecast application today at 1 PM, I can't use prevDaySameHourLoad as an input because Sunday is the previous day for the forecasted day Monday and I wouldn't have the 24 hour historical data for Sunday as I m running the program at 1PM on Sunday, so data from 1 PM up to midnight is unknown. Second the prev24HrAveLoad input depends on the actual load data for that day, which for this example would be the load data that I m forecasting for the next day (Monday). I m not sure how these 2 inputs can be used to predict the day ahead load if it requires historical data that you might not have yet.
When running the forecaster, I find that each time I run the codes, I get a different forecast/model for the loads. Is there a way to guarantee a consistent forecast model or is this always the case given that the neural network may be ending in a different local minima. Thank you for your help.
could you please tell me what did you mean by daily5dayHighAve and daily5dayLowAve in the genpredictor function?
% Long Term Forecast Predictors
X = [data.DryBulb data.DewPnt daily5dayHighAve daily5dayLowAve data.Hour dayOfWeek isWorkingDay];