% time1716 and data1716 available for use
% for Odds for Spain to win EURO 2012
%
% time1717 and data1717 available for use
% for Odds for Germany to win EURO 2012
%
% time1718 and data1718 available for use
% for Odds for The Netherlands to win EURO 2012
% 
% time1719 and data1719 available for use
% for Odds for France to win EURO 2012
% 
% time1720 and data1720 available for use
% for Odds for England to win EURO 2012
%
% time1721 and data1721 available for use
% for Odds for Portugal to win EURO 2012
% 
% time1722 and data1722 available for use
% for Odds for Italy to win EURO 2012
%
% time1723 and data1723 available for use
% for Odds for Russia to win EURO 2012

% 16...23

T = size(time1716,1);
startDate = time1716(1);
endDate = time1716(T);
xData = linspace(startDate, endDate, T )';



% define odds
uBound = 100;

% max
y1 = data1716;	T1 = size(data1716,1);
y2 = data1717;	T2 = size(data1717,1);
y3 = data1718;	T3 = size(data1718,1);
y4 = data1719;	T4 = size(data1719,1);
y5 = data1720;	T5 = size(data1720,1);
y6 = data1721;	T6 = size(data1721,1);
y7 = data1722;	T7 = size(data1722,1);
y8 = data1723;	T8 = size(data1723,1);

Tt = [T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6, T7, T8];
[Ttmax, Ttn] = max(Tt);

odds = zeros(Ttmax,8);
odds(1:T1,1) = y1;
odds(1:T2,2) = y2;
odds(1:T3,3) = y3;
odds(1:T4,4) = y4;
odds(1:T5,5) = y5;
odds(1:T6,6) = y6;
odds(1:T7,7) = y7;
odds(1:T8,8) = y8;

total = repmat(uBound, size(odds,1), 1);%sum(odds,2);

for i = 1:size(odds,1);
    for j = 1:size(odds,2);
        if odds(i,j) == 0
            odds(i,j) = 100;
        end
    end
end


% probabilities
p = 1-(odds./repmat(total,1,size(odds,2)));
pTotal = repmat(sum(p,2),1,8);


% probabilities normalized
STARTDAY = 3; % June the 3rd
prob1716 = (1-(y1(1:T1)./total(1:T1)))./pTotal(1:T1,1); day1716 = STARTDAY:T1+STARTDAY-1;
prob1717 = (1-(y2(1:T2)./total(1:T2)))./pTotal(1:T2,2); day1717 = STARTDAY:T2+STARTDAY-1;
prob1718 = (1-(y3(1:T3)./total(1:T3)))./pTotal(1:T3,3); day1718 = STARTDAY:T3+STARTDAY-1;
prob1719 = (1-(y4(1:T4)./total(1:T4)))./pTotal(1:T4,4); day1719 = STARTDAY:T4+STARTDAY-1;
prob1720 = (1-(y5(1:T5)./total(1:T5)))./pTotal(1:T5,5); day1720 = STARTDAY:T5+STARTDAY-1;
prob1721 = (1-(y6(1:T6)./total(1:T6)))./pTotal(1:T6,6); day1721 = STARTDAY:T6+STARTDAY-1;
prob1722 = (1-(y7(1:T7)./total(1:T7)))./pTotal(1:T7,7); day1722 = STARTDAY:T7+STARTDAY-1;
prob1723 = (1-(y8(1:T8)./total(1:T8)))./pTotal(1:T8,8); day1723 = STARTDAY:T8+STARTDAY-1;

% plots
CF = 14;        %cutoff

subplot(2,1,1); hold on
plot(day1716(1:CF), prob1716(1:CF), 'o-', 'Color', [1 0.5 0.2] , 'Linewidth', 2); % SP
plot(day1717(1:CF), prob1717(1:CF), 'k*-', 'Linewidth', 1); % DE
plot(day1718(1:CF), prob1718(1:CF), 'o-',  'Color', [0.5 0.8 0.1] ); % NL
plot(day1719(1:CF), prob1719(1:CF), 'b*-'); % FR
plot(day1720(1:CF), prob1720(1:CF), 'r*-'); % EN
plot(day1721(1:CF), prob1721(1:CF), 'ro-'); % PT
plot(day1722(1:CF), prob1722(1:CF), 'g*-','Color', [0.0 0.5 0.2], 'Linewidth', 2); % IT
plot(day1723(1:CF), prob1723(1:CF), 'bo-'); % RU

legend('SP', 'DE', 'NL', 'FR', 'EN', 'PT', 'IT', 'RU', 'Location', 'NorthOutside', 'Orientation', 'horizontal');
title('Probability of a country winning the EURO 2012 (normalized): First Round');
ylabel('p'); axis([3 16 0.1 0.16])

subplot(2,1,2); hold on
% plot(day1716(CF+1:T1), prob1716(CF+1:T1), 'o-', 'Color', [1 0.5 0.2] , 'Linewidth', 2); % SP
plot(day1717(CF+1:T2), prob1717(CF+1:T2), 'k*-', 'Linewidth', 1); % DE
plot(day1718(CF+1:T3), prob1718(CF+1:T3), 'o-',  'Color', [0.5 0.8 0.1] ); % NL
plot(day1719(CF+1:T4), prob1719(CF+1:T4), 'b*-'); % FR
plot(day1720(CF+1:T5), prob1720(CF+1:T5), 'r*-'); % EN
plot(day1721(CF+1:T6), prob1721(CF+1:T6), 'ro-'); % PT
plot(day1722(CF+1:T7), prob1722(CF+1:T7), 'g*-','Color', [0.0 0.5 0.2], 'Linewidth', 2); % IT
plot(day1723(CF+1:T8), prob1723(CF+1:T8), 'bo-'); % RU

title('Probability of a country winning the EURO 2012 (normalized): Knockout Stage');
ylabel('p'); axis([17 30 0.15 0.5])