MATLAB and Simulink Seminars

Making predictions of the electricity demand in the short-term using Artificial Intelligence in MATLAB

Event Type Start Time End Time
Webex 28 Oct 2021 - 1:00 PM CDT 28 Oct 2021 - 2:00 PM CDT


The project consists of the development of a Short-term Load forecasting tool to be used to prepare the distribution of Energy for the Electric System of Guatemala. The short term in this case is established to be the next day and 10 days ahead. The input data consists of a historical database of electricity Load for each hour, along with predictors such as temperature, influence of natural light and the operation of important loads such as the Electric Arc Furnace (EAF).

In this Model, the load is pre-processed to create predictors using a wide range of data, ranging from the type of day, month, year, hour, lagged load, moving averages and a special classification by type of holiday (December 24 and 25, Easter, November 1, etc.).

The User has the choice between two different Machine Learning and Deep Learning models implemented in MATLAB, to generate load forecast with great precision considering past data and future estimation of temperature, EAF operation and position of the sun in degrees relative to the earth plane. In this way, each time the tool is executed a new model is created, which is trained on the most recent data of the database, making the tool to never expire or deteriorate, but on the contrary, each time the model is used, it will be more robust and accurate.

The use of this tool represents a reduction of the absolute mean percentage error (MAPE) of 1.9% for estimation of the following day and 2.1% for the weekly projection, reducing by approximately 1.7% the error obtained using traditional techniques.

About the Presenter

Juan Carlos Pozuelos
AMM (Administrator del Mercado Mayorista), Guatemala

Juan Carlos Pozuelos was born in 1980, in Guatemala City. He obtained his Electrical Engineer degree in 2003 from the National University of Guatemala. He also has a postgraduate degree in Renewable Energy from La “Escuela de Organization Industrial” in Madrid, Spain. He has 18 years of experience in the operation of electrical systems performing activities such as real - time operation, electrical studies, elaboration of special projects such as the dimensioning of speening reserves among others, for the wholesale Market Administrator of Guatemala. He is currently investigating new techniques for forecasting variables of interest related to the operation of electrical systems.

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