StochPV

Stochastic analysis of even-aged timber growing

StochPV is a computer program enabling the risks and uncertainties inherent in even-aged timber-growing to be recognized through stochastic analysis. StochPV provides a probability distribution, not just a single value, for the present value of an even-aged stand, allowing practitioners to gauge their decisions regarding the impact of risks and uncertainties on silvicultural options and stand valuation.
Means, coefficients of variation, together with maximum and minimum values and correlation coefficients of prices and costs are read in via a spreadsheet and used to estimate beta distribution parameters for each data cell. The resulting distributions can be reviewed visually and amended, if necessary. The spreadsheet also supplies fire frequency and fire salvage data​.
Univariate or multivariate pseudo-random values are simulated for each variable involved, enabling calculation of the present value for each iteration. Present value is calculated for the stochastic analogues of Faustmann infinite rotations and a single rotation, the latter taking account of the initial land cost and revenue at the end of that rotation. The present values of the many iterations are then used to calculate mean, standard deviation, and other summary statistics