SimCOVID 6.0

Minor update.

Minor change to 6.17.

Adding extra branches for the beta function in Simulink up to 30 branches. Some other visualization improvements are included.

Modifying the codes due to adding a new source of data.

Minor change.

Minor change.

Minor change.

Minor changes.

Minor update.

Adding the 'WorldCOVID19" program to the package for plotting 2D, 3D, linear, and log color maps of the virus spread over the world for ~one year (can be edited by only updating the data).

Minor change.

Minor change.

Minor update.

Compatible with previous versions of Simulink (R2018a, R2018b, R2019a, R2019b, R2020a, R2020b)

This version of SimCOVID runs both Simulink and MATLAB models in one package.
The Simulink model was created with MATLAB R2020b.

In this update, the new-daily confirmed data is compared to the simulated (gradient(I+R)).
I+R represents the cumulative confirmed cases.

You can plot beta, gamma, and lambda results obtained from simulation. See Update 5.

Some comments.

Adding some notes.

Some improvements

Minor changes

Adding Method-5 (Update-5) in the folder (SimCOVID5\SimCOVID5\Update_5) to allow the user to choose the starting and ending date of the simulation (simulated data).

A more efficient way to choose the locations of time variables (t0).

Updating the preprint (attached).

The program in "Update 4" has now a new variable control parameter "c".
You can use it for three versions of prediction:
(1) pessimistic prediction (c=0.0)
(2) optimistic prediction (c=1.0)
(3) moderate prediction (c=0.5)
or any other value.

Minor comments.

Minor updates.

Minor comments.

Adding another program with the recovery rate represented by a sigmoid function (in addition to the infection rate).

Minor updates.

Adding the cumulative plot to the update-3 program (SimCOVID5\Update_3_NEW).

Minor updates.

Adding another generalized method (Update_3_NEW) to predict the future outbreak regardless of the length of the simulation time. Change the simulation time to get the short-, medium-, and long-term estimation.

Some improvements.

NEW:
Adding short-, medium-, and long-term estimation of the COVID-19 spread using the SIR and SEIR models (MATLAB version).

Update:
Adding the SEIR model to the MATLAB files (folder "3_NEW_Generalized_Detailed").

Minor updates.

Adding a new folder to plot both infection and death cases on the same graph. The name of the folder is "Death_and_Infectious_Combined_Plots".

Minor comments.

Minor corrections (labeling, comments...)

Adding another generalized case with multiple scenarios plots.

Minor comments.

Tracking and estimating the outbreak using the death cases (in addition to the infectious cases).

Adding a file to let plot the changes at any time "Generalized_Method3".

Adding another generalized program for estimation.

Some improvements and comments in the "generalized" program.

Minor updates.

Some minor notes.

NEW:
A generalized method is adopted to determine the number of sigmoid functions needed for the beta function (each outbreak will have a different number of sigmoid functions as needed).

Adding a detailed model of the beta function with 20 sigmoid functions to the MATLAB folder.

Adding another program to the MATLAB files with ten sigmoid steps (smoother results but relatively slower "in terms of seconds").

Some improvements in the older versions.

Some improvements in the latest MATLAB files (faster).

Minor improvements.

Minor comments.

Minor updates.

Update 1: The initial values for the time parameters used in the sigmoid function are now selected automatically based on the given data (variables).

Update 2: The sigmoid function is updated to capture some fast dynamic changes.

The sigmoid function and parameter limits are updated.

Minor comment.

Minor comments.

Update: Adding R0 (reproduction number) plot.

Now, the outbreaks in all countries around the world can be simulated in a generalized, easy, fast, and efficient way.

Adding the case of "variable beta - variable gamma" to the MATLAB folder (program 4 in the latest "Newly-Added" folder).

Adding a file to the MATLAB-version folder (the latest "Newly-Added" folder) to simulate the problem with considering multiple values of parameters (a percentage change in the beta function) and to plot the corresponding area.

Adding another folder to the MATLAB version for estimating the outbreak for the rest of the simulation time (selected by the user).

Adding a folder for plotting all state variables.

Fixing the x-axis label (date).

Minor comments.

Adding some comments.

NEW:
MATLAB version of SimCOVID is added.
Cases considered are the:
USA, UK, Italy, Spain, France, and Germany.
It can be easily modified for new case studies.

The Simulink files in the folder "Newly_Added" are also saved for the use of older versions (R2019b, R2019a, R2018b, R2018a).

The Simulink files in the folder "Newly_Added" are also saved for the use of older versions (R2018a, R2018b, R2019a, R2019b).

Improving some detailed comments.

Three versions of initial Susceptible (S0) are used:
1. The entire population is considered as susceptible (S0=N) as simulated before.
2. Half of the population is considered as susceptible (S0=1/2*N)
3. 10% of the population is considered as S0

Simpler models of SIR are presented here in this folder.
1. Variable beta, constant gamma (see L. Zhong, L. Mu1, J. Li, J. Wang, Z. Yin, and D. Liu, “Early Prediction of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in the Mainland China Based on Simple Mathe

Adding changes in the beta parameter at time zero using parallel loop computation.

Adding some comments

Adding a change in the beta parameter.

Minor coding comments.

A new folder is added to perform a parallel loop for the infection rate variable. This lets you automatically plot some figures like Fig. 5a-b in the paper.
A new version is also coming soon for automatically optimizing the parameters from MATLAB.

Minor code comments

1. A new smooth step function replaced the old one to give smooth results using a sigmoid function.
2. Old versions (R2018a, R2018b, and R2019a) are also included, in addition to the R2019b, the version which is used to create the Simulink files.