Bayesian Monte Carlo Valuation of Price Volume Action
A multipath simulation to evaluate the integrated price volume action value into the future
This program is very similar to Bayesian Markov Stochastic Monte Carlo American Option Pricing with Kelly Criterion.
It uses special code to combine price and volume into an action over time which is integrated to see the temporal effect of price and volume. The value displayed by the call and put sections and black scholes is not a real dollar amount, but a value of integrated price volume action. To give some idea about how price and volume will affect value over time. In conjunction with the other program, an expert can judge whether an investment is worth it or not and what the risk is and what the probability of winning within a certain amount of time is. The kelly criterion is still valid and one should use the kelly criterions from this program and not the dollar program. Care should be taken over whether to wager with the Fourier extrapolation trend or whether to go with the statistics. Only an expert can judge if they are saying different things. If BOTH the statistics and Fourier trend are on the same side of the ledger, you can bet that your wager is safer still. A MUltiple SIgnal Classification is also carried out (MUSIC) which allows Fourier Extrapolation is also carried out.
Cite As
Chondrally (2024). Bayesian Monte Carlo Valuation of Price Volume Action (https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/56446-bayesian-monte-carlo-valuation-of-price-volume-action), MATLAB Central File Exchange. Retrieved .
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Acknowledgements
Inspired by: American Option pricing with Bayesian Monte Carlo Path
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Version | Published | Release Notes | |
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20.0.0.1 | Updated to reflect complete set of toolbox dependencies |
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20.0.0.0 | changed description
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19.0.0.0 | changed title |
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18.0.0.0 | updated MusicFinal to get right initital prediction value |
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17.0.0.0 | updated title to include Density Functional as i use a probability density functional to help with the path integral and statistical forecasting. I use a fourier extrapolation to augment the statistical analysis! |
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16.0.0.0 | updated expiration date of option |
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15.0.0.0 | updated all kelly criterion formulas with error checking |
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14.0.0.0 | updated musicfinal
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13.0.0.0 | updated musicfinal and kelly criterion calculation |
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12.0.0.0 | updated musicfinal.m and added getpercenterrorlinear3.m to fix scaling of fourier output |
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11.0.0.0 | updated kelly criterion and figure
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10.0.0.0 | changed +1 to +100 in optionprices for min of action, so that least percent error function would work properly, it was a scaling problem that is now fixed |
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9.0.0.0 | updated musicFinal to fix discontinuity at boundary condition
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8.0.0.0 | updated title
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6.0.0.0 | added MusicFinal subroutine and corrected fourier trend analysis |
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5.0.0.0 | updated volatility presentation and updated figure display |
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4.0.0.0 | updated EMA40 Volume output on figure and in code as liquidity is crucial
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3.0.0.0 | updated kelly call and kelly put criterions in figure and code
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2.0.0.0 | ipdated figure |
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1.0.0.0 | updated title... |