Tips & Tricks
Follow


Athanasios Paraskevopoulos

Stochastic simulation of a novel pathogen

Athanasios Paraskevopoulos on 16 Jun 2024 (Edited on 16 Jun 2024)
Latest activity Reply by Vel on 4 Jul 2024 at 3:12

We are modeling the introduction of a novel pathogen into a completely susceptible population. In the cells below, I have provided you with the Matlab code for a simple stochastic SIR model, implemented using the "GillespieSSA" function
Simulating the stochastic model 100 times for
Since γ is 0.4 per day, per day
% Define the parameters
beta = 0.36;
gamma = 0.4;
n_sims = 100;
tf = 100; % Time frame changed to 100
% Calculate R0
R0 = beta / gamma
R0 = 0.9000
% Initial state values
initial_state_values = [1000000; 1; 0; 0]; % S, I, R, cum_inc
% Define the propensities and state change matrix
a = @(state) [beta * state(1) * state(2) / 1000000, gamma * state(2)];
nu = [-1, 0; 1, -1; 0, 1; 0, 0];
% Define the Gillespie algorithm function
function [t_values, state_values] = gillespie_ssa(initial_state, a, nu, tf)
t = 0;
state = initial_state(:); % Ensure state is a column vector
t_values = t;
state_values = state';
while t < tf
rates = a(state);
rate_sum = sum(rates);
if rate_sum == 0
break;
end
tau = -log(rand) / rate_sum;
t = t + tau;
r = rand * rate_sum;
cum_sum_rates = cumsum(rates);
reaction_index = find(cum_sum_rates >= r, 1);
state = state + nu(:, reaction_index);
% Update cumulative incidence if infection occurred
if reaction_index == 1
state(4) = state(4) + 1; % Increment cumulative incidence
end
t_values = [t_values; t];
state_values = [state_values; state'];
end
end
% Function to simulate the stochastic model multiple times and plot results
function simulate_stoch_model(beta, gamma, n_sims, tf, initial_state_values, R0, plot_type)
% Define the propensities and state change matrix
a = @(state) [beta * state(1) * state(2) / 1000000, gamma * state(2)];
nu = [-1, 0; 1, -1; 0, 1; 0, 0];
% Set random seed for reproducibility
rng(11);
% Initialize plot
figure;
hold on;
for i = 1:n_sims
[t, output] = gillespie_ssa(initial_state_values, a, nu, tf);
% Check if the simulation had only one step and re-run if necessary
while length(t) == 1
[t, output] = gillespie_ssa(initial_state_values, a, nu, tf);
end
if strcmp(plot_type, 'cumulative_incidence')
plot(t, output(:, 4), 'LineWidth', 2, 'Color', rand(1, 3));
elseif strcmp(plot_type, 'prevalence')
plot(t, output(:, 2), 'LineWidth', 2, 'Color', rand(1, 3));
end
end
xlabel('Time (days)');
if strcmp(plot_type, 'cumulative_incidence')
ylabel('Cumulative Incidence');
ylim([0 inf]);
elseif strcmp(plot_type, 'prevalence')
ylabel('Prevalence of Infection');
ylim([0 50]);
end
title(['Stochastic model output for R0 = ', num2str(R0)]);
subtitle([num2str(n_sims), ' simulations']);
xlim([0 tf]);
grid on;
hold off;
end
% Simulate the model 100 times and plot cumulative incidence
simulate_stoch_model(beta, gamma, n_sims, tf, initial_state_values, R0, 'cumulative_incidence');
% Simulate the model 100 times and plot prevalence
simulate_stoch_model(beta, gamma, n_sims, tf, initial_state_values, R0, 'prevalence');
Vel
Vel on 4 Jul 2024 at 3:12

Nicee unair.ac.id